Hindsight Bias -Mental Model 094

How The Atomic Bomb Dropped In WWII Went From Saving 20,000 Lives To 1.5 Million Lives

Seeing a past event as predictable, despite there being no objective basis for predicting it.


Example: The fourth-quarter comeback to win the game. The politician who had secretly accepted bribes. The lump that turned out to be a tumour. We don’t predict these events. But once they do happen, we feel as if we knew all along they were going to occur. As Steve Jobs said in his famous Stanford Commencement Speech, “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards.”


Wisdom: “If you feel like you knew it all along, it means you won’t stop to examine why something really happened.” — Neal Roese


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