Your Average Life Expectancy Is Not Average -Mental Model 068

Bayes’ Theorem

Prior knowledge of conditions related to an event can be used to give a more accurate estimation of that event.

Example: Ask yourself, what is my life expectancy? Worldwide, the average life expectancy is 71 years. However, you aren’t average, so your life expectancy isn’t exactly 71. For example, if you’re a woman, have already survived 47 years, have no disease, and live in Australia—then your life expectancy is a lot higher than 71 years.

So we can see that the probability of something, such as life expectancy, is conditional on other factors that are directly related to it.

Wisdom: “The wise man is one who, knows, what he does not know.” ― Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching

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